| 3s - 8h - Jd - 5s - 10sThroughout the annals of established blackjack literature, you've read that a bad player at 3rd base can't hurt your own chances in the game. In public seminars, I've presented illustrations with cards on sequential billboards that showed that same effect -- or lack of. I've even reported the results of my own 500-hand experiment that showed that 1st base did no worse when 3rd misplayed all 500 of his hands as when 3rd Base played perfect basic strategy. Still, the myth persists. Repeatedly, I get e-mails, letters, complaints and remarks from other players who insist that playing with "ploppies" (bad players) is the reason why good players lose. So there's only one thing left. I hesitate to do it because I know how much most of you hate numbers, but you've forced me into it. I have no choice but to present you with the simple mathematical proof that another player's mistake has absolutely no effect on your own chances to win your hand. Now don't put words in my mouth. I didn't say that another player's mistake couldn't cost you your hand. Indeed it could. It could also win your hand for you. It works both ways. And because it works both ways randomly, it'll all wash out in the end. The real point is that another player's mistakes don't hurt your own odds to win your hand. Here's an exemplary situation. I've simplified it to make things as clear as possible. You're at 1st base and have 14. Third base also has 14. The dealer's got a 5 up. You've already stayed pat and now it's 3rd base's turn. As the dealer points to the 3rd baseman, she accidentally snags her hole card on her sleeve and flips it face up. It's a 10! So now we know she positively has 15. A while back, I received an e-mail from a reader who said he wonders if he hasn't stumbled upon a way to beat casino blackjack without becoming a card counter. He says he's beaten the game over the course of several hundred hours this year simply by "loading up" on advantageous situations and asked me to evaluate his game plan. These advantageous situations he describes are one of the facets of "Hand Interaction", a technique which I've discussed in print a few times over the past couple of years. This fellow who has asked to remain nameless goes to the $10 tables, bets the minimum and plays all his hands according to perfect basic strategy. That, of course, we already know will leave him at a half percent disadvantage to the house. It's this next part of his game, however, which he believes has pushed him over the top. He purposely plays at crowded tables and bets only $10 for two reasons. First, the big crowd slows down his own play, thereby keeping his "overhead" cost of playing pure basic strategy to a minimum. Next, having lots of other players at the table also gives him many opportunities to "load up" on those "advantage" plays. |
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